Compared to last week, cash bids for corn, wheat, sorghum, and soybeans were mostly lower. Trade disputes continue to chase more uncertainty. President Trump has stated that he has no timetable to establish any new trade deals. This could have major implications down the road for the US market share of exportable grains incentivizing other countries to invest aggressively to meet their growing export demand they have replaced from the US giving future US exports less demand to fill. Old-crop corn shipments of 2.154 billion bushels (bb) have two weeks left to reach USDA’s 2.400 bb estimate, but that does not look likely. New-crop corn sales however, already total 390 million bushels (mb), which is up 61% from last year’s depressed start. USDA said the U.S. shipped 2.003 bb of soybeans in the first 50 weeks of 2017-18, 107 mb shy of USDA’s 2.110 bb estimate with two weeks to go. Old- crop exports will likely fall short of USDA’s goal, but 464 mb of new-crop soybean sales are a good start, up 27% from a year ago. New estimates from the International Grains Council reduced the estimate of world wheat production from 721 million metric tons (mmt) to 716 mmt (26.3 bb) on Thursday, now 5.5% less than a year ago. The new season’s lower supplies should help U.S. wheat exports in the future. USDA said last week’s export sales and shipments of wheat totaled 8.8 mb and 16.9 mb respectively, another bearish week that has total wheat shipments down 34% in 2018-19 from a year ago. Wheat was from 20 cents lower to a 1/2 cent higher. Corn was from 12 1/2 to 25 1/2 cents lower. Sorghum was 32 to 33 cents lower. Soybeans were 43 to 66 cents lower.
Source: USDA-MO Dept of Ag Market News Service, St. Joseph, Mo.